18 December 2007
According to Forrester Research, broadband in residential homes within Western Europe is set to rise by 48 million households by the end of 2013.
The same research predicts a continual reduction in the use of dial up services, accounting for just 2% of broadband connections by 2013.
Forrester Research Analyst Pete Nuthall comments:
the addition of 48 million new broadband connections may seem a healthy opportunity for broadband suppliers, but our forecast reveals the key challenge for ISPs will be managing customer churn. In 2008, we estimate the level of churn to be 23% across Western Europe, this will peak in 2012 at 31%. Most at risk are incumbents such as BT, France Télécom, Deutsche Telekom, and KPN, due to regulatory action that force them to open up their networks to competition through local loop unbundling (LLU). Incumbents will need to reassess existing retention strategies in the light of increased price-based competition from alternative ISPs.
Highlights from the survey include:
The Netherlands and Denmark are top of the broadband penetration board with 85% using broadband connection by 2013. Norway, Finland, and Sweden, are set to continue their past years of broadband dominance.
By 2013, the UK (82%), Germany (72%) and France (69%) will begin to close the broadband penetration gap with European leaders.
The laggards were Italy, Spain and Portugal reaching only 58%, 61% and 55% respectively by end of 2013. However these countries will show high growth rates compared to more mature broadband markets.
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